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Banking Sector Insight 2Q12 update: Still licking the wounds (Eng)

14.09.2012 | Источник: ICU
Тема: Обзоры по компаниям и отраслям, ICU, Инвестиционный Капитал Украина

The banking sector. The second quarter revealed a worsening in credit portfolio quality among many Ukrainian banks, with their overall provisioning charge increasing by 18% QoQ in 2Q12, to UAH5.6bn. While as of end-2Q12, the banks' LLR/gross loans ratio amounted to 17%, we believe that there is still a significant amount of banks with inadequately formed provisions, with a lack of capital being one of the key factors behind this. Reports from major global credit rating agencies, who consider a fair amount of the total sector's NPLs at 30-40% of total loans, also confirms our outlook on the possibility of further credit portfolio quality erosion among banks, as well as an increase in loan-loss provisioning. All in all, we believe it is just a matter of time when NPLs will become a burdensome weight for banks, creating the urgent need to attract much-needed capital and dispose of such assets.

Top bank names by credit metrics. Our analysis of banks' 2Q12 UAS financials revealed immaterial changes in our list of Ukraine's strongest banks, which are active players in the bond market. In our opinion, of the group of banks with Ukrainian roots, Oschadbank, Ukreximbank, and First Ukrainian International Bank remain among the strongest. From the group of foreign banks, we highlight Prominvestbank, Sberbank of Russia (SBRF), VTB Bank, and ProCredit Bank.

The bond market. Currently, Ukraine's bank bond market is held down by a rigid monetary policy, which does not allow borrowers to enjoy funding at decent interest rates. On top of that, challenging current macro conditions spell high credit risks for investors in sovereign debt as well as corporate and bank debt securities alike. These risks translate into a highly speculative nature of bonds of Ukraine origin, discouraging investment inflows into the Ukrainian bond markets. Such a difficult situation leads us to conclude that banks are likely to offer new bonds only at highly competitive rates in the near future. In general, the redemption of outstanding bonds by banks will exceed new borrowings going forward.

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